April USDA Supply and Demand report for Corn and Soybeans

CORN

The USDA left U.S. corn ending stocks unchanged at 1.440 billion bushels for the 21/22 crop year. Feed and residual use was increased by 25 million bushels, but food, seed, and industrial was decreased 25 million bushels.  The average trade estimate before the report was a drop in carryout of 25 million bushels.

The funds have been trading numbers tighter than USDA numbers for a while now and it seems that this will continue, at least until the May report. The May WASDE report will be the first report to reflect estimates for the upcoming 2022/2023 crop year.

World ending stocks for 2021/2022 increased from 300.97 million metric tons to 305.46mmt. World production increased from 1.206 billion tons to 1.210 billion tons. Ukraine’s production was unchanged at 41.9 million tons. Production in Brazil increased 2 million tons to 116 million tons. This Brazil production number is higher than the CONAB estimate of 115.6 million tons, they released yesterday.  Argentina and the U.S. were both unchanged. Exports decreased 2.9 million tons. Total corn use is estimated to be 1.197 billion metric tons up 500,000 tons from the previous report.

China has lowered their corn imports by 3 million tons. This decrease is due to lower Ukraine exports and poor hog feeding margins. Chinas’ corn usage is estimated to be down 3 million tons reflecting the lower imports. Ukraine exports are down 4.5 million tons reflecting their struggle to export during the war

SOYBEANS

USDA decreased U.S. soybean carryout by 25 million bushels. This brings soybean carryout numbers to 260 million bushels. Soybean crush was unchanged at 2.215 billion bushels. Exports increased 25 million bushels. Seed use is up 4 million bushels, but residual is down 3 million bushels. The increase in seed use could be reflecting the record number of soybean acres expected to be planted for the 2022/2023 crop year.

World ending stocks for 2021/2022 soybeans decreased from 89.96 million metric tons to 89.58mt. The change is very small but, in a tight supply environment small change can make a big difference. Production was decreased by 3.08 million tons but some of that was offset by an increase in beginning stocks of 1.37 million tons. Brazil production decreased 2 million tons to 125 million tons. Paraguay also saw a cut in soybean production by 1.1 million tons. Chinas’ imports are expected to be down 3 million tons.

WHEAT

USDA increased U.S. wheat carryout numbers 25 million bushels to 678 million bushels. The trade estimate was 656 million bushels. Wheat exports decreased by 15 million bushels. Feed and residual use was lowered by 10 million bushels. 

World wheat stocks for 21/22 decreased from 281.51 million metric tons to 279.95 million metric tons. Total exports are down just over 3 million tons. Argentina exports increase 500,000 tons, and Russia exports increased 1 million ton. U.S. exports decreased 410,000 tons, Ukraine exports decreased by 1 million ton, and the European Union exports decreased by 3.5 million tons.

Fertilizer

Fertilizer prices continue to rise as many fertilizers hit all-time highs. Nearly 100 members of Congress sent letters to President Joe Biden this week in concern of high fertilizer prices. They are urging the administration to review options to lower costs or provide relief to farmers.

There is a push to remove the cross-border vaccine mandate for transporters brining fertilizers from Canada to the U.S.

Below are the fertilizer trends for some of the most commonly used fertilizers. The chart shows the average retail price difference of fertilizer over last years’ prices.

Fertilizer Trend (in $/ton)