Ending stocks for the 22/23 crop year for corn were increased by 75 million bushels. Exports were dropped by 75 million bushels since the US is down 48% in sales compared to last year at this time. Total carryout is now estimated to be 1.257 billion bushels which is still a historically low number at 8.9% stocks to use. Ethanol prices have been dropping recently but ethanol production has remained strong. Margins have decreased and if it continues this trend, we may have to lower ethanol use later in the year.
World corn carryout for the 22/23 crop year is estimated at 298.4 million tons which is down from 300.76 million tons in the previous report. Lower production was the main reason for the drop in carryout numbers with the largest drop in production coming from Ukraine at 27 million tons down from the previous estimate of 31.5 million tons. Russian corn production was also dropped by 1 million tons.
Ending stocks for the 22/23 crop year for soybeans were unchanged at 220 million bushels. Export market for soybeans has remained relatively strong and we continue to see daily flash sales. Soybean sales total 1,428 billion bushels of the 2.045 billion bushels the USDA is expecting the US to export this year. It is a little deceiving that we are only 14 weeks into the marketing year and have ¾ of the total sales we need. The US typically only exports beans until early harvest starts in South American in February so there is only 8-10 weeks left before the US gets outpriced of the soybean market.
World soybean carryout for the 22/23 crop year was increased slightly from 102.17 million tons to 102.71 million tons. Slight production increases and small increases to beginning stocks was responsible for the increased carryout. South American production was unchanged but with Argentina struggling with moisture and 21% behind on planting their soybean crop, it is likely we will see decreased production in the next report.
Ending stocks for the 22/23 crop year for wheat were unchanged at 571 million bushels. World wheat carryout was decreased slightly from 267.82 million tons down to 267.33 million tons. Production was decreased by 3 million tons in Argentina as they face an ongoing drought, but Australian production was increased by 2 million tons. One issue we may see from Australia is the wheat crop is facing some quality issues due to rainfall and we could see some of that wheat crop get downgraded to feed use only.
Retail fertilizer prices have moved slightly lower over the past month. Fertilizer prices are mixed compared to last year with urea down 9% while anhydrous is up 8%. Nitrogen prices could remain volatile with continued issues with the war in Ukraine, higher natural gas prices, and currency exchange rate volatility.