CORN
Prospective planting numbers for corn came in below the lowest analyst estimates. Expected corn plantings came in at 89.49 million acres, the average estimate was 92 million acres. This is nearly 3.86 million acres less than last year of 93.357 million acres. At a 180 yield this will take away 450 million bushels from carryout numbers, that we can’t afford to lose. More rationing will be needed. There is a chance we can add some corn acres, but the most we have added between this report and final numbers in the last 10 years is 500,000 acres. The state by state break down of prospective corn plantings shows only 3 of the top 20 production states showing increased acres. South Dakota and Texas added 50,000 acres each and Colorado added 70,000 acres. Notable decreases in corn acres are Indiana down 5.6% or 600,000 acres, Minnesota down 7.1% or 600,000 acres, Illinois down 2.7% or 300,000 acres, North Dakota down 12.2% or 500,000, and Iowa down 2.3% or 300,000 acres. Many of the corn acres being lost are the higher yielding states, but it could be the marginal ground being switched to save on higher priced fertilizer. Quarterly stocks for corn came in at 7.850 billion bushels only 27 million bushels lower than trade estimates. Last years’ March quarterly stocks number was 7.696 billion bushels, putting us in a similar supply situation as last year. But this year, we have the possibility of increased exports due to Ukraine production and export issues.
SOYBEANS
Prospective planting numbers for soybeans came in higher than expected. Planting estimates came in at 90.955 million acres, the average estimate was 88.73. This is a 3.76 million acre increase from last years’ planting and if numbers don’t change, a record by over 800,000 acres. With an average yield of 49.1 bushels per acre, these added acres will increase production by 184.6 million bushels. However, we cannot assume trendline yields on the added acres because some of these acres will be double cropped behind wheat and will yield much lower. Soybean acres are only down in 2 states North Dakota losing 250,000 acres and Pennsylvania losing 30,000 acres. Tennessee is adding 19.4% to their soybean acres from 1.65 million to 1.8 million. Minnesota adding 350,000 acres, Iowa adding 300,00 acres, and both Missouri and Illinois adding 400,000 acres. Quarterly stocks for soybeans came in at 1.931 billion bushels, about 29 million bushels higher than trade estimates. Last years’ March quarterly stocks number was 1.562 billion bushels. That is an increase of 369 million bushels over last year numbers.
WHEAT
Prospective planting numbers for wheat came in slightly below estimates. Planting estimates came in at 47.351 million acres, the average trade estimate was 47.770 million acres. This is 600,000 acres less than last years’ acres, which were 46.703 million acres. Many of the states that can double crop wheat and soybeans are showing increased wheat acres. Illinois increased wheat acres by 60,000, Ohio adding 30,000 acres, Missouri adding 60,000, Kentucky adding 30,000, and Tennesse adding 20,000. When the wheat was planted, double cropping wheat and soybeans was most likely their best return. Quarterly stocks for wheat came in at 1.025 billion bushels, only 20 million bushels less than trade estimates. Last year March stocks number was 1.311 billion bushels. That’s a decrease of 289 million bushels year over year.
COTTON AND SMALL GRAIN
Cotton picks over a million acres over last year. Sorghum loses 1.1 million acres and barley picks up nearly 300,000 acres. Oats and rice were mostly unchanged.
FERTILIZER
Short lived Canadian Pacific Railway strike impacted fertilizer, especially potash, supply coming from Canada. The main issue facing fertilizer prices is that Russia and Belarus have stopped exporting fertilizer since the invasion of Ukraine. Russia and Belarus supply 12% of the potash that is used in the United States. Sanctions on Russia will continue to push fertilizer prices higher.