October WASDE Report Summary 10/12/2022

Oct 12, 2022

Corn seeing a yield cut down to 171.9 bushels per acre, down from 172.5 last month. This brings production down to 13.895 billion bushels a significant drop compared to last years production of 15.074 billion bushels.

New production numbers put 22/23 US carryout at 1.172 billion bushels which is a drop of 47 million bushels from last month.

We only saw yield increases in a few states with Iowa and Minnesota both unchanged from last month.

South Dakota seeing a 5.8% drop in expected yield and Kansas seeing a 5.7% drop.

World corn carryout also got tighter with the decrease in US and EU corn production. The European Union dropped corn production by 2.6 million tons down to 56.2 million metric tons.

World corn carryout for 22/23 is 301.19 million metric tons. 3.3 million tons lower than last month’s estimates.

U.S. carryout for 2022/2023 in Billion Bushels

  September October
Corn 1.219 1.172
Soybeans 0.200 0.200
Wheat 0.610 0.576

 

US Corn Yields by State Bushels/Acre

  September October
South Dakota 138 130
Kansas 122 115
Texas 104 100
Nebraska 176 172
Mississippi 172 167
Colorado 123 125
Missouri 149 151
Illinois 204 210

 

SOYBEANS

Soybean production was cut more than expected. Soybean yields came in at 49.8 bushels per acre, down from 50.5 bushels per acre a month ago and 0.8 bushels lower than analyst estimates.

Despite the production cut of 65 million bushels, the US 22/23 soybean carryout numbers were kept unchanged from last report. With increased beginning stocks and lower export sales helping offset the production loss. It seems USDA may have drawn a line in the sand that they won’t let carryout get lower than 200 million bushels.

Soybean Harvest

  September October
Kansas 32 28
Nebraska 52 49
Missouri 47 45
South Dakota 41 40
Virginia 44 42
Iowa 59 58
Ohio 56 55

 

Michigan 47 46

 

World ending stocks for 22/23 soybeans increased from 98.92 million metric tons to 100.52. Brazil soybean production is expected to be up 3 million tons which offset the lower US yields.

Beginning stocks were also a little higher for soybeans but those bushels were offset by a 2.5-million-ton increase to crush.

WHEAT

U.S. wheat carryout for 22/23 was decreased from 610 million bushels to 576 million bushels which is a 15 year low. Traders were expecting slightly lower, but this is still a very low number.

World wheat supplies came in close to trade estimates at 267.54 million tons.

Wheat production in Russia was being watched since Russia is claiming production could be over 100 million tons but USDA only put them at 91 million tons. There are continued claims that Russia has been selling grain that was stolen from Ukraine.

US production being down 3.6 million tons was offset by EU showing a 2.6-million-ton increase to production and slightly higher production from Brazil.

 

FERTILIZER

Fertilizer prices are mixed with small increases to some fertilizers and small decreases to others. Last year this was around the time we saw the big increases to fertilizer prices, and we could still see a jump if there are more issues with the Russia/Ukraine situation.

Increased fears Russia will shut off energy to Europe which could cause more sanctions and higher fertilizer prices.