CORN
Planted acres came in close to estimates with corn at 89.921 million acres. Slightly higher than trade estimates and nearly 400,000 acres more than March intentions.
There was a special note on the Acreage report that crop plantings in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota will be resurveyed in July. This is because at the time of the survey there were many acres that had not been planted. When the survey was done between May 28th and June 16th there were still 4.03 million acres left to be planted. In wet years where planting is delayed, they will use the acre number the farmer is still intending to plant at the time of the survey. Weather can still prevent the farmers from getting the acres planted.
North Dakota corn planting came in at 3 million acres which is down from the 3.6 million acres in March intentions. South Dakota corn planting was reported to be 5.9 million acres down from 6.2 million in March. Minnesota reported 8.3 million acres up from 7.8 million in March. Wisconsin had the biggest percentage increase to corn acres, going from 3.7 million acres in March to 4 million acres. Quarterly stocks came in close to estimates at 4.346 billion bushels only 3 million bushels higher than expected. This is a bigger stocks number than last year’s 4.111 but still a tight number.
SOYBEANS
There was a large drop in soybean acres compared to March intentions and analyst estimates. Soybean planted acres were reported to be 88.325 million acres. March intentions were 90.955 million acres, 2.63 million acres more than the reported number and 2.121 million acres more than analysts’ estimates. The only years to have this big of a decrease to acres from the March Intentions report and June report were 2019 and 2007.
Soybean acres decreased in all but 4 states. North Dakota had the biggest drop from 7 million acres down to 5.9 million acres, or a 15.7% drop. Minnesota had the second biggest drop from 8 million acres down to 7.5 million acres. Iowa lost 100,000 acres, Missouri lost 200,000 acres, but Illinois gained 200,000 acres.
Quarterly stocks for soybeans came in at 971 million bushels, only 6 million bushels higher than trade estimates. Last years’ June quarterly stocks number was 769 million bushels. That is an increase of 202 million bushels over last year’s number.
WHEAT
Wheat plantings came in below the prospective planting numbers from March but close to analyst estimates. Total wheat planting of 47.092 million acres only 75,000 acres more than trade estimates.
Wheat stocks slightly higher at 660 million bushels versus the 655 million bushels estimate.
Cotton and Small Grain
Cotton continues to increase acres with 12.478 million acres a sizable increase from the 12.194 estimate and over 1 million acres more than last year’s 11.22 million acres.
Sorghum acres lower than expected at 6.305 million acres. Barley came in higher at 3.046 million acres. Oats were slightly lower at 2.392 million acres, and rice slightly lower at 2.343 million acres.
Fertilizer
Recent drop in natural gas has helped ease nitrogen prices, but not to a significant degree. As the war between Russia and Ukraine still going on there are still unknowns with Russia being a major supplier or fertilizers. We could see more fertilizer related tariffs if the U.S International Trade Commission says the market has been injured from Russian urea imports. Russian urea was being sold in the U.S. at less than fair value which could spark the tariffs.